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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
7 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 70%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Serbia: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Dizijarun out · Jonty Jenner · Daniel Birrell 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jonty Jenner | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| S Iveticcaught · Charles Perchard · Daniel Birrell 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Charles Perchard · b Daniel Birrell | 14 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 87.50 |
| Luka Woodscaught · Dominic Blampied · Benjamin Ward 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dominic Blampied · b Benjamin Ward | 21 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 91.30 |
| BM Peciccaught · Daniel Birrell · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Birrell · b Charles Perchard | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| LA Dunbarbowled · Charles Perchard 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charles Perchard | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| bowled · b Benjamin Ward |
| 5 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| MV Pavlovicstumped · Patrick Gouge · Nick Greenwood 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Patrick Gouge · b Nick Greenwood | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
| V Zimonjiccaught · Julius Sumerauer · Nick Greenwood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Julius Sumerauer · b Nick Greenwood | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| P Nedeljkoviccaught · Jonty Jenner · Dominic Blampied 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jonty Jenner · b Dominic Blampied | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| AA Gajicnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Sarenacbowled · Nick Greenwood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nick Greenwood | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Birrell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 2.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Blampied0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-19 (S Ivetic, 3.5) · 2-32 (A Dizija, 5.3) · 3-35 (BM Pecic, 6.5) · 4-43 (LA Dunbar, 8.5) · 5-53 (Luka Woods, 11.3) · 6-58 (S Tosic, 13.3) · 7-62 (MV Pavlovic, 14.4) · 8-65 (P Nedeljkovic, 15.4) · 9-65 (V Zimonjic, 16.3) · 10-68 (M Sarenac, 18.3)
Recorded target: 234 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 43/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 53/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 55/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 58/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 60/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 64/7 |
| 16 | 1 | 65/8 |
| 17 | 1 | 66/9 |
| 18 | 2 | 68/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 68/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.