PortugalversusNorway

9 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Portugal won by 54 runs

Portugal20.0 overs189/8 Norway20.0 overs135/9 Santarem Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Portugal48%Norway

Why

Portugal are playing at home in Portugal
On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Portugal (1,512 vs 1,491 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Portugal started on 51%; Portugal batted first.

Portugal’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Portugal's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Norway: 0% to 48%).

Biggest swings

3.1: Ahmadullah Shinwari to J Vijay, J Vijay out. Norway up from 34% to 43%.
5.6: Ahmadullah Shinwari to C Greenshields, C Greenshields out. Norway up from 29% to 37%.
2nd inns 2.1: U Shantu to Usman Arif, Usman Arif out. Portugal up from 79% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Portugal189/8 Norway135/9

Innings 2

Norway

135/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Norway batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Khizer Ahmedcaught · D Norotam · U Shantu 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Norotam · b U Shantu	13	21	1	0	61.90
Usman Arif (2)caught · R Hashu · U Shantu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Hashu · b U Shantu	1	2	0	0	50.00
D Abeyrathnacaught · D Norotam · JAM Henri 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Norotam · b JAM Henri	1	5	0	0	20.00
Tafseer Alilbw · S Vaz 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Vaz	22	17	4	0	129.41
Junaid Mehmoodcaught · J Vijay · S Vaz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Vijay · b S Vaz	4	7	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
U Shantu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	3
JAM Henri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	1
S Vaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	1
Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	0	9.25	1
Amandeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	0
R Hashu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	2
Najjam Shahzad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	1	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	8	10/0
3	1	11/1
4	4	15/2
5	3	18/2
6	10	28/2
7	7	35/3
8	11	46/5
9	5	51/5
10	2	53/7
11	6	59/8
12	3	62/8
13	15	77/8
14	6	83/8
15	11	94/8
16	7	101/8
17	7	108/8
18	16	124/8
19	9	133/8
20	2	135/9

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