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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland Women tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Women
27 Nov 2024 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 53%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 49%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbesrun out · Shorna Akter, Rabeya Khan · Rabeya Khan 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shorna Akter, Rabeya Khan | 25 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 49.02 |
| Gaby Lewislbw · Marufa Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marufa Akter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Amy Huntercaught · Nigar Sultana · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Marufa Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Rabeya Khan · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rabeya Khan · b Nahida Akter | 19 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 55.88 |
| Laura Delanycaught · Jahanara Alam · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jahanara Alam · b Nahida Akter | 22 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 57.89 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Shorna Akter, Rabeya Khan |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Una Raymond-Hoeylbw · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sultana Khatun | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellylbw · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sultana Khatun | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Ava Canningbowled · Sultana Khatun 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sultana Khatun | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| FA Sargentlbw · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahida Akter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Aimee Maguirenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 2.60 | 1 | 0 |
| 9.0 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (Gaby Lewis, 2.3) · 2-10 (Amy Hunter, 2.4) · 3-48 (Orla Prendergast, 13.0) · 4-59 (Sarah Forbes, 17.2) · 5-61 (Leah Paul, 19.1) · 6-84 (Laura Delany, 23.2) · 7-86 (Una Raymond-Hoey, 24.3) · 8-86 (Ava Canning, 24.5) · 9-87 (FA Sargent, 25.2) · 10-98 (Arlene Kelly, 28.5)
Recorded target: 253 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 48/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 48/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 54/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 59/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 61/4 |
| 20 | 11 | 72/5 |
| 21 | 6 | 78/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 81/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 84/5 |
| 24 | 1 | 85/6 |
| 25 | 1 | 86/8 |
| 26 | 5 | 91/9 |
| 27 | 1 | 92/9 |
| 28 | 3 | 95/9 |
| 29 | 3 | 98/10 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.