Perth ScorchersversusMelbourne Renegades

2 Dec 2025 · T20

WACA, Perth · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 30 runs

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs184/5 Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs154/9 WACA, Perth ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 50%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

2.5: MH Illingworth to KM Mack, KM Mack out. Melbourne Renegades up from 34% to 43%.
7.3: G Wareham to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. Melbourne Renegades up from 43% to 50%.
2nd inns 0.5: CC Ainsworth to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. Perth Scorchers up from 81% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.