PhilippinesversusFiji

13 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Fiji won by 8 wickets

Philippines20.0 overs68/9 Fiji14.0 overs69/2 Albert Park 2, Suva ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Fiji more likely to win

23%Philippines77%Fiji

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Fiji rate stronger than Philippines (1,333 vs 1,167 on our results rating)
Fiji are playing at home in Fiji

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Philippines started on 21%; Philippines batted first.

Philippines’s chance of winning (%) · Fiji is the rest

Philippines's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (Fiji: 78% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: AK Gonerara to AR Valdez, AR Valdez out. Fiji up from 78% to 85%.
1.6: MT Waqanisau to Karri Gullem Keen, Karri Gullem Keen out. Fiji up from 80% to 85%.
2.3: AK Gonerara to KK Donovan, KK Donovan out. Fiji up from 85% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Philippines68/9 Fiji69/2

Innings 1

Philippines

68/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
AR Valdezcaught · Tabatha Saville · AK Gonerara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tabatha Saville · b AK Gonerara	0	1	0	0	0.00
ABY Smithrun out · S Vuni, A Levaci · I Waqavakatoga 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · S Vuni, A Levaci	11	14	1	0	78.57
Karri Gullem Keenlbw · MT Waqanisau 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b MT Waqanisau	4	7	1	0	57.14
KK Donovanlbw · AK Gonerara 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b AK Gonerara	0	2	0	0	0.00
JKD Andreanobowled · AK Gonerara 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b AK Gonerara	0	8	0	0	0.00
AS Miranda

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
AK Gonerara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	3	2.25	0	0
MT Waqanisau0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	6	1
KV Vakuruivalu0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	7	1
I Waqavakatoga1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	4	0	1.33	2	0
A Levaci1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	1	2.00	3	0
J Rokoro0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	5	1
S Sigaiwasa1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	2	2.25	4	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	7	11/2
3	1	12/3
4	2	14/3
5	1	15/4
6	11	26/4
7	2	28/5
8	0	28/5
9	2	30/5
10	3	33/6
11	10	43/6
12	3	46/6
13	4	50/7
14	4	54/8
15	0	54/9
16	3	57/9
17	3	60/9
18	2	62/9
19	2	64/9
20	4	68/9

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