Melbourne RenegadesversusAdelaide Strikers

17 Jan 2026 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 8 wickets

Melbourne Renegades16.5 overs99/10 Adelaide Strikers11.5 overs100/2 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 46%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: J Wadia to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Adelaide Strikers up from 53% to 69%.
5.1: Hasan Ali to J Brown, J Brown out. Adelaide Strikers up from 80% to 89%.
7.5: L Pope to Hassan Khan, Hassan Khan out. Adelaide Strikers up from 79% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades99/10 Adelaide Strikers100/2

Innings 1