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Photo: Rae Allen
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
2 Jan 2026 · T20
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Melbourne Stars started on 50%; Melbourne Stars batted first.
Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 4% to 96% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 4% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Harpercaught · Jack Wildermuth · Thomas Balkin 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jack Wildermuth · b Thomas Balkin | 37 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 160.87 |
| Tom Rogersbowled · Matt Renshaw 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Renshaw | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 108.33 |
 Marcus Stoiniscaught · Thomas Balkin · Xavier Bartlett5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Thomas Balkin · b Xavier Bartlett | 43 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 122.86 |
| Campbell Kellawaycaught · Max Bryant · Thomas Balkin 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max Bryant · b Thomas Balkin | 29 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 207.14 |
 |
| caught · James Peirson · b Matthew Kuhnemann |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Hilton Cartwrightnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 26* | 20 | 1 | 2 | 130.00 |
|---|
 Tom Currancaught · Colin Munro · Oliver Patterson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Colin Munro · b Oliver Patterson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Blake Macdonaldnot out 4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 37* | 12 | 4 | 2 | 308.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Wildermuth0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Oliver Patterson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Thomas Balkin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-52 (Sam Harper, 5.3) · 2-56 (Tom Rogers, 6.2) · 3-109 (Campbell Kellaway, 11.4) · 4-113 (Glenn Maxwell, 12.1) · 5-134 (Marcus Stoinis, 15.5) · 6-137 (Tom Curran, 16.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 29/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 47/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 51/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 60/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 69/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 78/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 11 | 16 | 102/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 112/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 120/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 128/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 136/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 139/6 |
| 18 | 14 | 153/6 |
| 19 | 22 | 175/6 |
| 20 | 20 | 195/6 |
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
James Peirson: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Colin Munro: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Peter Siddle: PrivateMusings · CC BY-SA 2.5
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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