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Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
6 Jun 2025 · T20
Edgbaston · Venue photographRecorded result
Yorkshire started on 41%; Yorkshire batted first.
Yorkshire's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 6 Jun 2025, Yorkshire played Birmingham Bears at Edgbaston. Recorded result: Birmingham Bears won by 6 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.