**Newlands, Cape Town**
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SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusMI Cape Town

31 Dec 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 85 runs

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs220/5 MI Cape Town14.2 overs135/10 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 36%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (MI Cape Town: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.2: LB Williams to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Pretoria Capitals up from 62% to 74%.
2nd inns 8.3: KA Maharaj to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Pretoria Capitals up from 63% to 76%.
2nd inns 9.4: SE Rutherford to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Pretoria Capitals up from 70% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals220/5 MI Cape Town135/10

Innings 1