BhutanversusMyanmar

26 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bhutan won by 82 runs

Bhutan20.0 overs127/9 Myanmar9.2 overs45/10 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

82%Bhutan18%Myanmar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Myanmar (1,362 vs 1,224 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Bhutan won 3 and Myanmar won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 80%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: S Yeshi to KK Lin Thu, KK Lin Thu out. Bhutan up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 2.4: S Yeshi to H Lin Aung, H Lin Aung out. Bhutan up from 63% to 77%.
2nd inns 4.2: S Yeshi to Khin Aye, Khin Aye out. Bhutan up from 69% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan127/9 Myanmar45/10

Innings 2

Myanmar

45/109.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Myanmar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pyae Phyo Waibowled · Sonam Yeshey 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sonam Yeshey	10	11	2	0	90.91
Htet Lin Oocaught · Tenjin Rabgey · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tenjin Rabgey · b Sonam Yeshey	12	14	0	1	85.71
Ko Ko Lin Thucaught · Tenjin Rabgey · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tenjin Rabgey · b Sonam Yeshey	0	1	0	0	0.00
Htet Lin Aungcaught · Namgay Thinley · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Namgay Thinley · b Sonam Yeshey	0	2	0	0	0.00
Khin Ayecaught · Ugyen Dorji · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ugyen Dorji · b Sonam Yeshey	2	4	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
T Wangchuk0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	18	0	9.00	4	1
Ugyen Dorji0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	3	0
Sonam Yeshey1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	8	1.75	0	0
Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	0	5.00	0	0
Anand Mongar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	0	3	2	2.25	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	12	21/0
3	0	21/3
4	9	30/3
5	3	33/4
6	5	38/4
7	1	39/6
8	1	40/7
9	3	43/9
10	2	45/10

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