NamibiaversusSouth Africa

13 Sept 2026 · ODI

Recorded result

South Africa won by 9 wickets

Namibia36.2 overs156/10 South Africa21.3 overs157/1 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

26%Namibia74%South Africa

Why

On results in ODIs so far, South Africa rate stronger than Namibia (1,670 vs 1,397 on our results rating)
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
In the last 2 ODIs between these sides, South Africa won 2 and Namibia won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 24%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (South Africa: 73% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: C Bosch to M van Lingen, M van Lingen out. South Africa up from 73% to 83%.
6.4: KT Maphaka to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. South Africa up from 79% to 88%.
20.3: BC Fortuin to L Steenkamp, L Steenkamp out. South Africa up from 77% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia156/10 South Africa157/1

Innings 1

Namibia

156/1036.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael van Lingencaught · Kwena Maphaka · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kwena Maphaka · b Corbin Bosch	2	9	0	0	22.22
A Busing-Volschenkrun out · N Mokoena · Bjorn Fortuin 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · N Mokoena	31	68	4	0	45.59
Jan Frylinckbowled · Kwena Maphaka 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kwena Maphaka	2	10	0	0	20.00
Louren Steenkampbowled · Bjorn Fortuin 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Bjorn Fortuin	23	36	3	0	63.89
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · N Mokoena · Bjorn Fortuin 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · N Mokoena · b Bjorn Fortuin	3	4	0	0	75.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls	5.2	18	2	3.38	11
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	24	1	4.00	2
N Mokoena0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	15	0	3.00	0
Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	33	4	3.30	0
Eathan Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	20	0	4.00	0
Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	39	2	7.80	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	1	4/0
3	2	6/0
4	1	7/1
5	5	12/1
6	6	18/1
7	6	24/2
8	8	32/2
9	4	36/2
10	3	39/2
11	2	41/2
12	4	45/2
13	1	46/2
14	2	48/2
15	1	49/2
16	4	53/2
17	4	57/2
18	1	58/2
19	7	65/2
20	5	70/2
21	4	74/4
22	5	79/4
23	5	84/5
24	5	89/5
25	1	90/6
26	5	95/6
27	2	97/6
28	10	107/7
29	1	108/7
30	2	110/7
31	2	112/8
32	3	115/8
33	5	120/8
34	19	139/9
35	11	150/9
36	6	156/9
37	0	156/10

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