IndiaversusPakistan

9 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 6 runs

India19.0 overs119/10 Pakistan20.0 overs113/7 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

78%India22%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Pakistan (1,653 vs 1,493 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Pakistan won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 75%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

India's chances ranged from 13% to 99% during the match (Pakistan: 2% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.3: HH Pandya to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. India up from 39% to 57%.
2nd inns 17.6: Mohammed Siraj to Imad Wasim, 1 run to Imad Wasim. Pakistan up from 37% to 49%.
2nd inns 18.2: JJ Bumrah to Iftikhar Ahmed, 0 runs to Iftikhar Ahmed. India up from 56% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India119/10 Pakistan113/7

Innings 2

Pakistan

113/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Rizwanbowled · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah	31	44	1	1	70.45
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Suryakumar Yadav · Jasprit Bumrah 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Suryakumar Yadav · b Jasprit Bumrah	13	10	2	0	130.00
Usman Khanlbw · Axar Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Axar Patel	13	15	1	0	86.67
Fakhar Zamancaught · Rishabh Pant · Hardik Pandya1 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	2	0
Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75	1	1
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	0	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	1	0
Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	6	15/0
3	4	19/0
4	2	21/0
5	5	26/1
6	9	35/1
7	3	38/1
8	4	42/1
9	9	51/1
10	6	57/1
11	9	66/2
12	6	72/2
13	1	73/3
14	7	80/3
15	3	83/4
16	2	85/4
17	5	90/5
18	9	99/5
19	3	102/6
20	11	113/7

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