The BlazeversusCentral Sparks

31 May 2024 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

The Blaze won by 10 runs

The Blaze20.0 overs134/6 Central Sparks20.0 overs124/7 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

The Blaze started on 56%; The Blaze batted first.

The Blaze’s chance of winning (%) · Central Sparks is the rest

The Blaze's chances ranged from 38% to 99% during the match (Central Sparks: 1% to 62%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.1: J Groves to E Jones, E Jones out. The Blaze up from 48% to 63%.
2nd inns 12.4: LF Higham to C Webb, C Webb out. The Blaze up from 67% to 82%.
2nd inns 14.6: KL Gordon to C Pavely, C Pavely out. The Blaze up from 68% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Central Sparks chose to field
match referees: SJ Davis
umpires: A Clark, AC Harris

Match history & source

On 31 May 2024, The Blaze played Central Sparks at Trent Bridge. Recorded result: The Blaze won by 10 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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