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Canada T20 Tri-Series · 2024 · Men
2 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Oman more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 39%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahrun out · Ayan Khan · Kaleemullah 1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Ayan Khan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · PS Athavale · Fiaz Bhutt 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · PS Athavale · b Fiaz Bhutt | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 114.29 |
| D Khanalcaught · Shoaib Khan · Aaqib Ilyas 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shoaib Khan · b Aaqib Ilyas | 18 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Kushal Mallacaught · Ayan Khan · Shakeel Ahmed0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ayan Khan · b Shakeel Ahmed | 19 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 73.08 |
 Rohit Kumar |
| not out |
| 56* |
| 44 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 127.27 |
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Rafiullah · Fiaz Bhutt0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rafiullah · b Fiaz Bhutt | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Dipendra Singh Aireelbw · Kaleemullah0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kaleemullah | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Shakeel Ahmed · Fiaz Bhutt1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shakeel Ahmed · b Fiaz Bhutt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 275.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kaminot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleemullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 10.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Fiaz Bhutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaqib Ilyas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Zeeshan Maqsood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Rafiullah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-13 (Anil Sah, 1.0) · 2-44 (Aasif Sheikh, 5.0) · 3-55 (D Khanal, 7.1) · 4-100 (Kushal Malla, 14.2) · 5-123 (Gulsan Jha, 16.2) · 6-131 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 17.2) · 7-148 (Kushal Bhurtel, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 22/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 44/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 58/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 67/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 83/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 91/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 99/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 107/4 |
| 16 | 16 | 123/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 125/5 |
| 18 | 17 | 142/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 151/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 157/7 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
