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Japan tour of South Korea · 2024 · Men
25 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 70%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 11% to 98% during the match (Indonesia: 2% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Yamamoto-Lakelbw · Danilson Hawoe 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Danilson Hawoe | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · RM Koda · Kadek Gamantika 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RM Koda · b Kadek Gamantika | 19 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 146.15 |
| R Sakurano-Thomascaught and bowled · Ketut Artawan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ketut Artawan | 16 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 64.00 |
| S Ravichandranlbw · RM Koda 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b RM Koda | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
| W Miyauchibowled · Ketut Artawan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ketut Artawan | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| run out · KC Ramamoorthy, RM Koda |
| 6 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashibowled · Kadek Gamantika 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kadek Gamantika | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinzecaught · Dharma Kesuma · RM Koda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dharma Kesuma · b RM Koda | 18 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 105.88 |
|---|
| M Taniyamanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| P Kumbharebowled · RM Koda 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b RM Koda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Kubotanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Gaurav Tiwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| RM Koda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| F Banunaek0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-2 (L Yamamoto-Lake, 0.5) · 2-35 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 5.3) · 3-43 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 8.2) · 4-49 (S Ravichandran, 9.3) · 5-51 (W Miyauchi, 10.3) · 6-66 (KH Abe, 13.2) · 7-78 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 15.3) · 8-103 (Charlie Hara-Hinze, 19.4) · 9-103 (P Kumbhare, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 30/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 51/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 56/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 59/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 66/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 68/6 |
| 15 | 9 | 77/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 81/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 88/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 99/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 104/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.