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Japan tour of South Korea · 2024 · Men
25 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 70%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 11% to 98% during the match (Indonesia: 2% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dharma Kesumabowled · P Kumbhare 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b P Kumbhare | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Anjar Tadaruscaught · S Ravichandran · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ravichandran · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Kadek Gamantikabowled · Ibrahim Takahashi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 30.43 |
| PR Survenot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 36* | 42 | 2 | 1 | 85.71 |
| KC Ramamoorthylbw · S Ravichandran 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b S Ravichandran | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Danilson Hawoe |
| bowled · b Charlie Hara-Hinze |
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 125.00 |
| Gaurav Tiwaribowled · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Ravichandran | 13 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
| Ahmad Ramdoninot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Kumbhare0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kubota0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Taniyama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Dharma Kesuma, 1.0) · 2-15 (Anjar Tadarus, 4.0) · 3-20 (Kadek Gamantika, 7.4) · 4-30 (KC Ramamoorthy, 9.3) · 5-35 (Danilson Hawoe, 10.2) · 6-73 (Gaurav Tiwari, 17.3)
Recorded target: 105 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 17/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 25/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 30/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 31/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 37/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 40/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 45/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 49/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 58/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 64/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 71/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 75/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 85/6 |
| 20 | 15 | 100/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.