IndiaversusWest Indies

19 Dec 2024 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 60 runs

India20.0 overs217/4 West Indies20.0 overs157/9 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

73%India27%West Indies

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and West Indies won 1
India are playing at home in India
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,648 vs 1,623 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 69%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

India's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

0.6: CA Henry to U Chetry, U Chetry out. West Indies up from 33% to 43%.
1.4: DJS Dottin to S Mandhana, four by S Mandhana. India up from 57% to 61%.
3.3: DJS Dottin to S Mandhana, six by S Mandhana. India up from 71% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India217/4 West Indies157/9

Innings 1

India

217/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Chinelle Henry · Deandra Dottin 13 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Chinelle Henry · b Deandra Dottin	77	47	13	1	163.83
Uma Chetrycaught · Qiana Joseph · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Qiana Joseph · b Chinelle Henry	0	2	0	0	0.00
Jemimah Rodrigueslbw · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Afy Fletcher	39	28	4	0	139.29
Raghvi Bistnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes	not out	31*	22	2	1	140.91

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	0	0
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	54	1	13.50	2	1
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	2	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	44	0	14.67	2	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	1	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	6	7/1
3	13	20/1
4	20	40/1
5	5	45/1
6	16	61/1
7	5	66/1
8	12	78/1
9	8	86/1
10	13	99/1
11	5	104/2
12	15	119/2
13	12	131/2
14	8	139/2
15	14	153/3
16	8	161/3
17	14	175/3
18	11	186/3
19	16	202/3
20	15	217/4

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