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Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2026 · Men
11 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zambia started on 18%; Zambia batted first.
Zambia's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Rwanda: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Ndikubwimanacaught · Ismail Kara · Ayaz Dadabhai 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ismail Kara · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 30 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 111.11 |
| Hamza Khancaught · Soyeb Pendi · Javid Patel 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Soyeb Pendi · b Javid Patel | 56 | 36 | 6 | 3 | 155.56 |
| I Niyomugabocaught · Zakir Husain Patel · Ayaz Dadabhai 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zakir Husain Patel · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 22 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
| O Manishimwenot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 22* | 19 | 1 | 1 | 115.79 |
| Yves Cyusanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soyeb Pendi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ismail Kara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 8.53 | 2 | 0 |
| R Lungu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 5 | 0 |
| JV Chand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Javid Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakir Husain Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-84 (D Ndikubwimana, 9.4) · 2-94 (Hamza Khan, 11.0) · 3-126 (I Niyomugabo, 15.3)
Recorded target: 143 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 47/0 |
| 6 | 19 | 66/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 71/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 80/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 85/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 94/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 102/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 114/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 124/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 128/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 134/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 139/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 144/3 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.