CanterburyversusWellington

22 Jan 2024 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 8 wickets

Canterbury20.0 overs97/10 Wellington13.5 overs98/2 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 34%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Wellington: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.1: NE Codyre to KG Anderson, KG Anderson out. Wellington up from 68% to 76%.
8.4: LM Kasperek to M Penna, M Penna out. Wellington up from 72% to 77%.
9.3: AC Kerr to IG Sharp, IG Sharp out. Wellington up from 76% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.