**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

BangladeshversusMalaysia

24 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 114 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs191/2 Malaysia20.0 overs77/8 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Bangladesh49%Malaysia

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 3 and Malaysia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,482 vs 1,416 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 49%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Suabika Manivannan to Murshida Khatun, four by Murshida Khatun. Bangladesh up from 49% to 53%.
4.4: Aisya Eleesa to Dilara Akter, six by Dilara Akter. Bangladesh up from 57% to 62%.
7.4: Mahirah Izzati Ismail to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Malaysia up from 23% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh191/2 Malaysia77/8

Innings 2

Malaysia

77/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ainna Hamizah Hashimcaught · Dilara Akter · Jahanara Alam 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dilara Akter · b Jahanara Alam	0	2	0	0	0.00
Wan Juliabowled · Ritu Moni 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ritu Moni	11	25	1	0	44.00
Elsa Huntercaught and bowled · Nahida Akter 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Nahida Akter	20	23	4	0	86.96
Winifred Duraisingambowled · Nahida Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nahida Akter	8	16	1	0	50.00
Mahirah Ismailcaught · Jahanara Alam · Sabikun Nahar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jahanara Alam

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jahanara Alam0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	3
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	2	3.25	0
Sabikun Nahar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	1
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	1	3.33	0
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	1	2.00	0
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	1	2.33	1
Rumana Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	3	4/1
3	8	12/1
4	4	16/1
5	9	25/1
6	1	26/2
7	4	30/2
8	4	34/2
9	2	36/2
10	6	42/2
11	2	44/3
12	2	46/4
13	2	48/4
14	7	55/4
15	1	56/5
16	5	61/6
17	4	65/6
18	5	70/6
19	3	73/7
20	4	77/8

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