AustraliaversusNew Zealand

8 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 60 runs

Australia20.0 overs148/8 New Zealand19.2 overs88/10 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

87%Australia13%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,733 vs 1,498 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 86%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 15%).

Biggest swings

5.2: RA Mair to AJ Healy, AJ Healy out. New Zealand up from 7% to 9%.
2nd inns 2.2: ML Schutt to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. Australia up from 93% to 96%.
2nd inns 10.1: S Molineux to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Australia up from 92% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia148/8 New Zealand88/10

Innings 2

New Zealand

88/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suzie Batesbowled · Sophie Molineux 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Molineux	20	27	2	0	74.07
Georgia Plimmerbowled · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Megan Schutt	4	7	0	0	57.14
Amelia Kerrcaught · Annabel Sutherland · Megan Schutt 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Megan Schutt	29	31	3	0	93.55
Sophie Devinebowled · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Molineux	7	15	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	1	3	3	0.90	0
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	2	3.75	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	3	5.25	1
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	0	7.33	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	1
Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	1	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	2	9/1
4	6	15/1
5	6	21/1
6	8	29/1
7	3	32/1
8	8	40/1
9	5	45/1
10	9	54/1
11	2	56/2
12	1	57/3
13	3	60/4
14	3	63/6
15	10	73/6
16	4	77/7
17	4	81/8
18	2	83/9
19	5	88/9
20	0	88/10

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