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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
3 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 25%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikramjit Singhcaught · Basil Hameed · Ali Naseer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basil Hameed · b Ali Naseer | 7 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 25.93 |
| Max O'Dowdbowled · D Parashar 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b D Parashar | 15 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 65.22 |
| Noah Croesbowled · Ali Naseer 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ali Naseer | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Scott Edwardslbw · Vishnu Sukumaran 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Vishnu Sukumaran | 51 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 89.47 |
 Bas de Leedelbw · Junaid Siddique5 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Junaid Siddique | 66 | 86 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 14% to 99% during the match (Netherlands: 1% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 76.74 |
| Shariz Ahmadcaught · Vriitya Aravind · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vriitya Aravind · b Junaid Siddique | 17 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwebowled · Ali Naseer1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ali Naseer | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
 Timm van der Gugtennot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 23 | 2 | 0 | 95.65 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught and bowled · Ali Naseer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ali Naseer | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · Junaid Siddique 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerenlbw · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 35 | 3 | 3.89 | 3 | 0 |
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.77 | 0 | 0 |
| Ali Naseer2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Rahul Bhatia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Vishnu Sukumaran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Max O'Dowd, 7.4) · 2-22 (Vikramjit Singh, 8.4) · 3-29 (Noah Croes, 12.1) · 4-129 (Scott Edwards, 31.3) · 5-158 (Shariz Ahmad, 36.3) · 6-172 (Bas de Leede, 38.4) · 7-175 (Roelof van der Merwe, 40.1) · 8-181 (Aryan Dutt, 42.5) · 9-206 (Michael Levitt, 46.3) · 10-214 (Paul van Meekeren, 47.4)
Recorded target: 241 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 23/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 29/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 34/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 47/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 54/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 59/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 66/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 66/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 73/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 81/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 89/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 93/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 28 | 12 | 113/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 118/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 128/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 135/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 138/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 141/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 150/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 156/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 165/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 166/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 172/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 175/6 |
| 41 | 0 | 175/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 180/7 |
| 43 | 1 | 181/8 |
| 44 | 3 | 184/8 |
| 45 | 9 | 193/8 |
| 46 | 12 | 205/8 |
| 47 | 6 | 211/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 214/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
