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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
24 May 2026 · T20
Lord's · Venue photographMiddlesex started on 32%; Middlesex batted first.
Middlesex's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Surrey: 47% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holdenbowled · Jordan Clark 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jordan Clark | 23 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 121.05 |
 Adam Rossingtoncaught · ARG Thomas · Reece Topley1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · ARG Thomas · b Reece Topley | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Josh de Caireslbw · Yousef Majid 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Yousef Majid | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 106.67 |
 Leus du Plooycaught · Tom Curran · Reece Topley0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Curran · b Reece Topley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| CM Falconer |
| caught · ARG Thomas · b Yousef Majid |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
 Ryan Higginshit wicket · Tom Curran1 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Tom Curran | 13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
 Luke Hollmannot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 35* | 28 | 4 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Eathan Boschrun out · Jason Roy · Reece Topley 2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Jason Roy | 31 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 172.22 |
|---|
 Tom Helmrun out · Tom Curran · Reece Topley0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tom Curran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 6 | 1 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Jordan Clark0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Yousef Majid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Daniel Lawrence0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Max Holden, 5.0) · 2-37 (Adam Rossington, 5.1) · 3-37 (Leus du Plooy, 5.3) · 4-50 (CM Falconer, 8.1) · 5-65 (Josh de Caires, 10.4) · 6-89 (Ryan Higgins, 14.3) · 7-142 (Eathan Bosch, 19.5) · 8-143 (Tom Helm, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 50/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 58/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 66/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 75/5 |
| 13 | 6 | 81/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 88/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 92/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 98/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 110/6 |
| 18 | 16 | 126/6 |
| 19 | 7 | 133/6 |
| 20 | 10 | 143/8 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Luke Hollman: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Helm: Dave Morton · Public domain
Leus du Plooy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zafar Gohar: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Higgins: Dave Morton · Public domain
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Cornwell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adam Rossington: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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