NorthamptonshireversusLancashire

8 Jun 2025 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 24 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs180/6 Lancashire20.0 overs156/9 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 48%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Lancashire: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.1: LA Procter to MF Hurst, MF Hurst out. Northamptonshire up from 59% to 74%.
2nd inns 6.3: L Pope to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. Northamptonshire up from 72% to 87%.
2nd inns 10.5: L Pope to AJ Turner, AJ Turner out. Northamptonshire up from 73% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire180/6 Lancashire156/9

Innings 1