South AfricaversusAustralia

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,756 vs 1,556 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and South Africa won 2
• Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 12%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 89%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 1.6: AK Markram to TM Head, TM Head out. South Africa up from 54% to 70%.
2. 2nd inns 7.1: C Bosch to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. South Africa up from 60% to 75%.
3. 2nd inns 9.4: K Rabada to TH David, TH David out. South Africa up from 61% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.