EnglandversusPakistan

25 May 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 23 runs

England20.0 overs183/7 Pakistan19.2 overs160/10 Edgbaston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

59%England41%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and Pakistan won 3
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than England (1,559 vs 1,535 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 58%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

England's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.1: MM Ali to Babar Azam, Babar Azam out. England up from 61% to 75%.
2nd inns 11.1: JC Archer to Azam Khan, Azam Khan out. England up from 77% to 91%.
2nd inns 15.6: RJW Topley to Iftikhar Ahmed, Iftikhar Ahmed out. England up from 74% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England183/7 Pakistan160/10

Innings 2

Pakistan

160/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Rizwancaught · Liam Livingstone · Moeen Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Liam Livingstone · b Moeen Ali	0	3	0	0	0.00
Saim Ayubcaught · Philip Salt · Reece Topley 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Reece Topley	2	7	0	0	28.57
Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Moeen Ali 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Moeen Ali	32	26	4	0	123.08
Fakhar Zamancaught · Harry Brook · Liam Livingstone 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Harry Brook · b Liam Livingstone	45

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Moeen Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0	0
Reece Topley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	41	3	12.30	1	0
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	0	0
Chris Jordan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	1	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	1	0
Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	1	9.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	9	10/1
3	3	13/1
4	14	27/2
5	13	40/2
6	15	55/2
7	9	64/2
8	3	67/2
9	9	76/3
10	4	80/4
11	11	91/4
12	1	92/5
13	9	101/6
14	18	119/6
15	5	124/6
16	16	140/7
17	6	146/7
18	7	153/8
19	5	158/9
20	2	160/10

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