Papua New GuineaversusThailand

Thailand more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Papua New Guinea (1,710 vs 1,559 on our results rating)
• Papua New Guinea are playing at home in Papua New Guinea
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 3 and Thailand won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 35%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Thailand: 60% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.2: P Maya to H Doriga, H Doriga out. Thailand up from 60% to 67%.
2. 4.2: T Putthawong to S Jimmy, S Jimmy out. Thailand up from 82% to 88%.
3. 4.6: T Putthawong to P Siaka, P Siaka out. Thailand up from 87% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.