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Canada T20 Tri-Series · 2024 · Men
28 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 39%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 8% to 95% during the match (Nepal: 5% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahcaught · Kaleem Sana · Parveen Kumar (2) 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Parveen Kumar (2) | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 180.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Dilpreet Bajwa · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dilpreet Bajwa · b Kaleem Sana | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 88.89 |
| D Khanalcaught · Kaleem Sana · Akhil Kumar 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Akhil Kumar | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 122.22 |
 Rohit Kumarbowled · Kaleem Sana2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 37 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 94.87 |
 Kushal Malla |
| caught · Ravinderpal Singh · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 12 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 85.71 |
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Saad Bin Zafar0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Navneet Dhaliwal · Saad Bin Zafar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Saad Bin Zafar | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamibowled · Kaleem Sana0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanecaught and bowled · Kaleem Sana0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 90.91 |
|---|
 Karan KCrun out · Dilpreet Bajwa, Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dilpreet Bajwa, Shreyas Movva | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| R Dhakalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Parveen Kumar (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-17 (Anil Sah, 1.5) · 2-17 (Aasif Sheikh, 2.3) · 3-36 (D Khanal, 5.4) · 4-58 (Kushal Malla, 9.1) · 5-68 (Kushal Bhurtel, 11.2) · 6-88 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 15.1) · 7-92 (Sompal Kami, 16.2) · 8-95 (Rohit Kumar, 17.0) · 9-108 (Karan KC, 18.2) · 10-109 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 19.0)
Recorded target: 124 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 23/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 30/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 36/3 |
| 7 | 1 | 37/3 |
| 8 | 11 | 48/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 58/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 63/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 68/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 70/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 72/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 75/5 |
| 15 | 13 | 88/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 91/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 95/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 103/8 |
| 19 | 6 | 109/10 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
