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Photo: Dave Morton
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
7 Mar 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 64%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Srimantha Wijeratnerun out · Richie Berrington, Matty Cross · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richie Berrington, Matty Cross | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Aaron Johnsonlbw · Brad Currie 0 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 15 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 136.36 |
| Pargat Singhlbw · Brad Wheal 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Wheal | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Charlie Tear · Brad Wheal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Tear · b Brad Wheal | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Harsh Thakernot out 8 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 105* | 150 | 8 | 1 | 70.00 |
| Nicholas Kirton |
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Canada: 13% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Safyaan Sharif |
| 44 |
| 64 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 68.75 |
| Shreyas Movvanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 29 | 2 | 0 | 68.97 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Wheal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 51 | 2 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Currie1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 4.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Currie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Leask1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Srimantha Wijeratne, 1.5) · 2-25 (Aaron Johnson, 4.0) · 3-25 (Pargat Singh, 4.2) · 4-34 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 6.5) · 5-143 (Nicholas Kirton, 33.0)
Recorded target: 198 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 25/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 27/3 |
| 7 | 11 | 38/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 40/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 42/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 42/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 49/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 53/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 61/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 62/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 62/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 72/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 79/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 82/4 |
| 22 | 8 | 90/4 |
| 23 | 9 | 99/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 104/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 111/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 114/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 120/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 29 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 134/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 140/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 143/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 146/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 149/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 150/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 156/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 158/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 164/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 168/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 171/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 177/5 |
| 43 | 11 | 188/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 192/5 |
| 45 | 3 | 195/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 200/5 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
