West IndiesversusAustralia

26 Jul 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 3 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs205/9 Australia19.2 overs206/7 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

15%West Indies85%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,725 vs 1,478 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and West Indies won 2
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Kitts and Nevis

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 13%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Australia: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: J Blades to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. West Indies up from 38% to 53%.
2nd inns 6.1: R Shepherd to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. West Indies up from 28% to 41%.
2nd inns 11.4: J Blades to C Connolly, C Connolly out. West Indies up from 19% to 40%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies205/9 Australia206/7

Innings 2

Australia

206/719.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshlbw · Jediah Blades 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Jediah Blades	0	2	0	0	0.00
Glenn Maxwellcaught · Jason Holder · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Jason Holder · b Akeal Hosein	47	18	1	6	261.11
Josh Ingliscaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Romario Shepherd 10 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Romario Shepherd	51	30	10	1	170.00
Cameron Green

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jediah Blades0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	2	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	5	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	59	1	14.75	4	0
Matthew Forde0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	43	0	10.75	1	1
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	36	1	10.80	4	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	6	12/1
3	13	25/1
4	17	42/1
5	10	52/1
6	14	66/1
7	12	78/2
8	15	93/2
9	15	108/2
10	21	129/2
11	5	134/3
12	2	136/5
13	14	150/5
14	14	164/5
15	12	176/5
16	9	185/5
17	4	189/6
18	6	195/6
19	9	204/7
20	2	206/7

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