Sydney SixersversusSydney Thunder

20 Dec 2025 · T20

Sydney Showground Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 47 runs

Sydney Sixers20.0 overs198/5 Sydney Thunder19.1 overs151/10 Sydney Showground Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Sixers started on 51%; Sydney Sixers batted first.

Sydney Sixers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Sydney Sixers's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

4.2: RJW Topley to DP Hughes, DP Hughes out. Sydney Thunder up from 38% to 48%.
2nd inns 0.5: T Murphy to M Gilkes, M Gilkes out. Sydney Sixers up from 69% to 79%.
2nd inns 2.2: J Edwards to S Konstas, S Konstas out. Sydney Sixers up from 82% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.