BangladeshversusAustralia

21 Jun 2026 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs109/8 Australia11.0 overs112/3 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

27%Bangladesh73%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,681 vs 1,504 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 26%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (Australia: 72% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: SH Johnson to Saif Hassan, Tanzid Hasan out. Australia up from 73% to 81%.
1.5: SH Johnson to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Australia up from 81% to 87%.
7.2: A Zampa to Nurul Hasan, Nurul Hasan out. Australia up from 89% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh109/8 Australia112/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

109/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasanrun out · Spencer Johnson · Spencer Johnson 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Spencer Johnson	5	2	1	0	250.00
Saif Hassancaught · Mitchell Marsh · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Spencer Johnson	1	9	0	0	11.11
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Joel Davies · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Joel Davies · b Nathan Ellis	1	13	0	0	7.69
Tawhid Hridoynot out 3 fours · 3 sixes	not out	61*	51	3	3	119.61
Nurul Hasanbowled · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adam Zampa

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nikhil Chaudhary0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	1	6.75	2	0
Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	6	2	1.50	1	1
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	0	0
Joel Davies0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	20	0	10.00	1	0
Adam Zampa1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	2	5.50	0	0
Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0	0
Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	1	7/2
3	2	9/2
4	1	10/2
5	1	11/3
6	11	22/3
7	12	34/3
8	0	34/4
9	3	37/5
10	5	42/5
11	9	51/5
12	11	62/6
13	3	65/7
14	4	69/7
15	4	73/7
16	7	80/7
17	6	86/7
18	10	96/8
19	11	107/8
20	2	109/8

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