Chattogram RoyalsversusRajshahi Warriors

17 Jan 2026 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajshahi Warriors won by 3 wickets

Chattogram Royals19.5 overs125/10 Rajshahi Warriors19.3 overs126/7 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Royals started on 47%; Chattogram Royals batted first.

Chattogram Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Rajshahi Warriors is the rest

Chattogram Royals's chances ranged from 2% to 69% during the match (Rajshahi Warriors: 31% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: Shoriful Islam to Nazmul Hossain Shanto, Nazmul Hossain Shanto out. Chattogram Royals up from 33% to 49%.
2nd inns 6.6: Mahedi Hasan to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. Chattogram Royals up from 46% to 65%.
2nd inns 19.2: Arafat Sunny to Jahandad Khan, four by Jahandad Khan. Rajshahi Warriors up from 80% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chattogram Royals125/10 Rajshahi Warriors126/7

Innings 1