RwandaversusNigeria

6 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 40 runs

Rwanda20.0 overs114/7 Nigeria17.3 overs74/10 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

75%Rwanda25%Nigeria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Nigeria (1,587 vs 1,474 on our results rating)
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 4 and Nigeria won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 75%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

0.4: L Udeh to MD Bimenyimana, MD Bimenyimana out. Nigeria up from 24% to 29%.
2nd inns 1.6: Rosine Irera to MK Amusa, MK Amusa out. Rwanda up from 77% to 82%.
2nd inns 2.3: R Shimwamana to F Eseigbe, F Eseigbe out. Rwanda up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda114/7 Nigeria74/10

Innings 2

Nigeria

74/1017.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
F Eseigberun out · M Uwase, C Uwase · R Shimwamana 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · M Uwase, C Uwase	2	7	0	0	28.57
MK Amusabowled · Rosine Irera 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Rosine Irera	8	8	1	0	100.00
C Chukwuonyebowled · Rosine Irera 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Rosine Irera	0	5	0	0	0.00
S Etimrun out · M Uwase, Sylvia Usabyimana · R Shimwamana 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · M Uwase, Sylvia Usabyimana	1	3	0	0	33.33
S Sundaylbw · A Ikuzwe 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b A Ikuzwe	19	29	2	0	65.52
A Adekunlelbw · R Shimwamana0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
B Murekatete0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	1
Rosine Irera1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	14	2	4.67	0
R Shimwamana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	1	2.67	1
Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	0	6.00	1
A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	2	3.00	0
Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	10	3	2.86	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	3	11/1
3	1	12/3
4	0	12/4
5	1	13/5
6	11	24/5
7	6	30/5
8	2	32/5
9	4	36/5
10	6	42/5
11	5	47/5
12	4	51/5
13	2	53/6
14	5	58/7
15	1	59/8
16	5	64/8
17	10	74/8
18	0	74/10

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