Texas Super KingsversusMI New York

11 Jul 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI New York won by 7 wickets

Texas Super Kings20.0 overs166/5 MI New York19.0 overs172/3 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Texas Super Kings started on 57%; Texas Super Kings batted first.

Texas Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Texas Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (MI New York: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.1: Zia-ul-Haq to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Texas Super Kings up from 35% to 47%.
2nd inns 6.2: AJ Hosein to MG Bracewell, MG Bracewell out. Texas Super Kings up from 43% to 57%.
2nd inns 16.2: Zia-ul-Haq to KA Pollard, six by KA Pollard. MI New York up from 45% to 60%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.