PakistanversusIndia

6 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 6 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs105/8 India18.5 overs108/4 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

21%Pakistan79%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Pakistan (1,638 vs 1,494 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Pakistan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 20%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (India: 78% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: Renuka Singh to Gull Feroza, Gull Feroza out. India up from 80% to 85%.
2nd inns 4.3: Sadia Iqbal to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Pakistan up from 12% to 18%.
2nd inns 15.3: Fatima Sana to RM Ghosh, RM Ghosh out. Pakistan up from 9% to 15%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan105/8 India108/4

Innings 1

Pakistan

105/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alistumped · Richa Ghosh · Shreyanka Patil 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Richa Ghosh · b Shreyanka Patil	17	26	2	0	65.38
Gull Ferozabowled · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Renuka Singh	0	4	0	0	0.00
Sidra Ameenbowled · Deepti Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Deepti Sharma	8	11	1	0	72.73
Umaima Sohailcaught · Shafali Verma · Arundhati Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shafali Verma · b Arundhati Reddy	3	6	0	0	50.00
Nida Darbowled · Arundhati Reddy 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Arundhati Reddy	28	34	1	0	82.35

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Renuka Singh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75	4
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	1	6.00	3
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	3	4.75	1
Shreyanka Patil1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	1
Asha Sobhana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	1	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	4	5/1
3	12	17/1
4	1	18/1
5	7	25/2
6	4	29/2
7	5	34/3
8	3	37/3
9	4	41/3
10	0	41/4
11	6	47/4
12	5	52/4
13	6	58/5
14	12	70/6
15	2	72/7
16	4	76/7
17	3	79/7
18	10	89/7
19	8	97/7
20	8	105/8

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