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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Canada tour of Nepal · 2023/24 · Men
12 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 18%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Dillon Heyliger3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dillon Heyliger | 13 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 92.86 |
| Anil Sahnot out 12 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 112* | 124 | 12 | 2 | 90.32 |
| B Sharkinot out 11 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 101* | 129 | 11 | 1 | 78.29 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 5 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 23% during the match (Nepal: 77% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 31 |
| 1 |
| 5.17 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Uday Bhagwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.3 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 7.69 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Shahid Ahmadzai1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
 Nikhil Dutta1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
1-45 (Kushal Bhurtel, 4.5)
Recorded target: 233 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 17 | 26/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 33/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 45/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 55/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 70/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 74/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 80/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 83/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 89/1 |
| 17 | 8 | 97/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 102/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 106/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 108/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 112/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 114/1 |
| 24 | 5 | 119/1 |
| 25 | 6 | 125/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 127/1 |
| 27 | 0 | 127/1 |
| 28 | 10 | 137/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 138/1 |
| 30 | 3 | 141/1 |
| 31 | 6 | 147/1 |
| 32 | 3 | 150/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 152/1 |
| 34 | 11 | 163/1 |
| 35 | 7 | 170/1 |
| 36 | 10 | 180/1 |
| 37 | 4 | 184/1 |
| 38 | 13 | 197/1 |
| 39 | 4 | 201/1 |
| 40 | 8 | 209/1 |
| 41 | 13 | 222/1 |
| 42 | 0 | 222/1 |
| 43 | 2 | 224/1 |
| 44 | 3 | 227/1 |
| 45 | 7 | 234/1 |
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nikhil Dutta: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
