BangladeshversusSouth Africa

28 Jun 2026 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 4 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs117/5 South Africa19.2 overs118/6 Lord's ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

26%Bangladesh74%South Africa

Why

In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 8 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,670 vs 1,593 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 24%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 1% to 25% during the match (South Africa: 75% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.1: M Kapp to Juairiya Ferdous, Juairiya Ferdous out. South Africa up from 75% to 84%.
2nd inns 0.1: Marufa Akter to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Bangladesh up from 9% to 15%.
2nd inns 19.1: Marufa Akter to CL Tryon, four by CL Tryon. South Africa up from 91% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh117/5 South Africa118/6

Innings 2

South Africa

118/619.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtbowled · Marufa Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marufa Akter	0	1	0	0	0.00
Tazmin Britscaught · Marufa Akter · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Marufa Akter · b Nahida Akter	20	24	2	0	83.33
Annerie Dercksencaught · Nigar Sultana · Nahida Akter 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Nigar Sultana · b Nahida Akter	45	45	2	2	100.00
Dane van Niekerklbw · Sanjida Akter Meghla 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sanjida Akter Meghla	4	5	0	0	80.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	23	1	6.90	7
Sanjida Akter Meghla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	0
Ritu Moni0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	6	13/1
3	5	18/1
4	9	27/1
5	6	33/1
6	7	40/1
7	8	48/1
8	2	50/1
9	5	55/2
10	4	59/3
11	4	63/3
12	7	70/3
13	6	76/3
14	11	87/3
15	4	91/4
16	1	92/4
17	5	97/4
18	11	108/5
19	5	113/6
20	5	118/6

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