PakistanversusEngland

24 Feb 2026 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 2 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs164/9 England19.1 overs166/8 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

41%Pakistan59%England

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and Pakistan won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Pakistan (1,776 vs 1,767 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 40%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (England: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.1: Usman Tariq to T Banton, T Banton out. Pakistan up from 61% to 77%.
2nd inns 11.5: Usman Tariq to SM Curran, SM Curran out. Pakistan up from 34% to 57%.
2nd inns 15.4: Usman Tariq to WG Jacks, six by WG Jacks. England up from 60% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan164/9 England166/8

Innings 1

Pakistan

164/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhanlbw · Jamie Overton 7 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Jamie Overton	63	45	7	2	140.00
Saim Ayubcaught · Jacob Bethell · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jacob Bethell · b Jofra Archer	7	7	1	0	100.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Jamie Overton · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jamie Overton · b Liam Dawson	5	6	1	0	83.33
Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Jamie Overton 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jamie Overton	25	24	2	0	104.17

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	0	0
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	2	8.67	1	0
Liam Dawson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	1	0
Sam Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0	0
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	1	1
Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	27	0	13.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	9	14/0
3	9	23/1
4	6	29/2
5	11	40/2
6	6	46/2
7	9	55/2
8	6	61/2
9	5	66/2
10	4	70/2
11	3	73/3
12	11	84/3
13	7	91/3
14	16	107/3
15	5	112/3
16	14	126/4
17	14	140/5
18	7	147/7
19	7	154/8
20	10	164/9

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