IndiaversusEngland

1 Jul 2025 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 24 runs

India20.0 overs181/4 England20.0 overs157/7 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

30%India70%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,735 vs 1,653 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 27%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 17% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 83%).

Biggest swings

1.4: L Filer to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. England up from 65% to 73%.
2nd inns 0.6: A Reddy to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 71% to 79%.
2nd inns 11.3: RP Yadav to TT Beaumont, TT Beaumont out. India up from 81% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India181/4 England157/7

Innings 2

England

157/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sophia Dunkleyrun out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma · Arundhati Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma	1	5	0	0	20.00
Danielle Wyattcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Deepti Sharma	1	2	0	0	50.00
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Amanjot Kaur 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Amanjot Kaur	13	10	3	0	130.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	0	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	1	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	0	0
Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	1	0
Radha Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	0	1
Sneh Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	2	4/2
3	12	16/2
4	3	19/3
5	7	26/3
6	6	32/3
7	15	47/3
8	1	48/3
9	12	60/3
10	16	76/3
11	6	82/3
12	7	89/4
13	7	96/4
14	13	109/4
15	1	110/6
16	4	114/6
17	13	127/6
18	12	139/6
19	9	148/6
20	9	157/7

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