GloucestershireversusSurrey

4 Jul 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 57 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs191/5 Surrey19.4 overs134/10 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 43%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Surrey is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Surrey: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: L Scott to LJ Evans, LJ Evans out. Gloucestershire up from 60% to 71%.
2nd inns 2.3: MD Taylor to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. Gloucestershire up from 70% to 81%.
2nd inns 5.5: M de Lange to JR Philippe, JR Philippe out. Gloucestershire up from 69% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire191/5 Surrey134/10

Innings 1