NepalversusOman

29 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 37 runs

Nepal20.0 overs176/6 Oman19.1 overs139/10 Maple Leaf North-West Ground, King City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

39%Nepal61%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Nepal (1,536 vs 1,462 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 36%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

5.2: Zeeshan Maqsood to AK Sah, AK Sah out. Oman up from 50% to 58%.
2nd inns 0.1: Karan KC to KH Prajapati, KH Prajapati out. Nepal up from 66% to 78%.
2nd inns 1.6: R Dhakal to Aqib Ilyas, Aqib Ilyas out. Nepal up from 75% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal176/6 Oman139/10

Innings 2

Oman

139/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kashyap Prajapatilbw · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Karan KC	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aaqib Ilyascaught · Kushal Malla · R Dhakal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kushal Malla · b R Dhakal	2	4	0	0	50.00
Shoaib Khancaught · Karan KC · Kushal Bhurtel 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Karan KC · b Kushal Bhurtel	45	39	4	2	115.38
Ayan Khanbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee	2	8	0	0	25.00
Zeeshan Maqsoodcaught · R Dhakal · Kushal Bhurtel 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · R Dhakal · b Kushal Bhurtel	6	13	1	0	46.15

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Karan KC0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	36	3	9.00	2
R Dhakal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	1	8.00	0
Dipendra Singh Airee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	2	1	1.00	0
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	32	2	10.67	1
Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	0
Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.1	0	14	2	6.46	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	4	9/2
3	8	17/2
4	1	18/2
5	0	18/3
6	7	25/3
7	2	27/3
8	10	37/4
9	3	40/4
10	12	52/4
11	10	62/4
12	3	65/5
13	3	68/5
14	11	79/5
15	10	89/6
16	6	95/7
17	11	106/8
18	20	126/8
19	13	139/9
20	0	139/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.