ScotlandversusUganda

25 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Scotland won by 109 runs

Scotland20.0 overs161/3 Uganda12.2 overs52/10 Sheikh Zayed Stadium Nursery 1, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

57%Scotland43%Uganda

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 1 and Uganda won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Uganda (1,498 vs 1,489 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 53%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

1.4: S Walaza to DEM Carter, six by DEM Carter. Scotland up from 50% to 57%.
5.1: S Akiteng to DEM Carter, DEM Carter out. Uganda up from 31% to 37%.
5.2: S Akiteng to KE Bryce, KE Bryce out. Uganda up from 37% to 44%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland161/3 Uganda52/10

Innings 1

Scotland

161/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Darcey Carterbowled · S Akiteng 3 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b S Akiteng	24	16	3	1	150.00
Saskia Horleynot out 7 fours · 0 sixes	not out	61*	52	7	0	117.31
Kathryn Brycerun out · Rita Musamali · S Akiteng 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Rita Musamali	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sarah Brycebowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi	16	17	1	0	94.12
Ailsa Listernot out 5 fours · 2 sixes	not out	55*	34	5	2	161.76
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
E Anyipo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	2
S Walaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0
Concy Aweko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	0
S Akiteng0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1
Janet Mbabazi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	10	12/0
3	11	23/0
4	11	34/0
5	2	36/0
6	4	40/2
7	4	44/2
8	7	51/2
9	7	58/2
10	8	66/2
11	2	68/3
12	6	74/3
13	3	77/3
14	18	95/3
15	10	105/3
16	15	120/3
17	14	134/3
18	12	146/3
19	5	151/3
20	10	161/3

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