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Pakistan tour of Ireland · 2024 · Men
12 May 2024 · T20
Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin · Venue photographRecorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 55%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (Pakistan: 12% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirniecaught · Fakhar Zaman · Shaheen Afridi3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Shaheen Afridi | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 114.29 |
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Mohammad Amir · Shaheen Afridi2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Amir · b Shaheen Afridi | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
| Lorcan Tuckercaught · Fakhar Zaman · Abbas Afridi 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Abbas Afridi | 51 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 150.00 |
 Harry Tectorcaught · Shaheen Afridi · Abbas Afridi4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi |
| 32 |
| 28 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 114.29 |
| Curtis Camphercaught and bowled · Mohammad Amir 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Amir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 169.23 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Azam Khan · Naseem Shah3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Azam Khan · b Naseem Shah | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Gareth Delanynot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 28* | 10 | 3 | 2 | 280.00 |
|---|
| Mark Adairbowled · Shaheen Afridi 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Graham Humenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 12.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Imad Wasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-29 (Paul Stirling, 3.2) · 2-34 (Andrew Balbirnie, 3.5) · 3-96 (Harry Tector, 11.3) · 4-137 (Curtis Campher, 15.1) · 5-154 (George Dockrell, 17.0) · 6-154 (Lorcan Tucker, 17.1) · 7-165 (Mark Adair, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 35/2 |
| 5 | 12 | 47/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 55/2 |
| 7 | 13 | 68/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 84/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 92/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 98/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 110/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 116/3 |
| 15 | 21 | 137/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 146/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 154/5 |
| 18 | 10 | 164/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 176/7 |
| 20 | 17 | 193/7 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Amir: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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