Jamaica KingsmenversusSt Lucia Kings

21 Aug 2026 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 6 wickets

Jamaica Kingsmen20.0 overs169/9 St Lucia Kings18.2 overs171/4 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jamaica Kingsmen started on 43%; Jamaica Kingsmen batted first.

Jamaica Kingsmen’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Jamaica Kingsmen's chances ranged from 1% to 52% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 48% to 99%).

Biggest swings

3.4: MW Forde to R Powell, R Powell out. St Lucia Kings up from 65% to 83%.
5.4: MW Forde to Hassan Khan, Hassan Khan out. St Lucia Kings up from 75% to 89%.
2nd inns 17.6: Saim Ayub to AJ Pienaar, six by AJ Pienaar. St Lucia Kings up from 85% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.