MalaysiaversusSaudi Arabia

9 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 3 wickets

Malaysia20.0 overs137/2 Saudi Arabia19.1 overs139/7 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

60%Malaysia40%Saudi Arabia

Why

Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 3 and Saudi Arabia won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,552 vs 1,543 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 58%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 2% to 78% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 23% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.5: Virandeep Singh to Muhammad Atif, Muhammad Atif out. Malaysia up from 55% to 77%.
2nd inns 15.6: P Madhukar to Abdul Waheed, four by Abdul Waheed. Saudi Arabia up from 32% to 53%.
2nd inns 17.5: Syed Aziz to Usman Khalid, six by Usman Khalid. Saudi Arabia up from 69% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia137/2 Saudi Arabia139/7

Innings 2

Saudi Arabia

139/719.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abdul Waheednot out 5 fours · 3 sixes	not out	67*	44	5	3	152.27
Faisal Khancaught · Nazmus Sakib · Syed Aziz 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nazmus Sakib · b Syed Aziz	4	3	1	0	133.33
Waji Ul Hassancaught · Syed Aziz · Muhammad Wafiq 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Syed Aziz · b Muhammad Wafiq	13	13	1	1	100.00
Manan Alicaught and bowled · Vijay Unni 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Vijay Unni	8	13	0	0	61.54
Hisham Sheikhcaught · Muhammad Amir · Virandeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Amir · b Virandeep Singh	12	8	2	0	150.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	2
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	4
Muhammad Wafiq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	1	12.50	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	0
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0
Prashant Madhukar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.1	18	1	8.31	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/1
2	2	14/1
3	6	20/1
4	8	28/1
5	10	38/2
6	5	43/2
7	15	58/2
8	6	64/2
9	10	74/3
10	3	77/5
11	5	82/5
12	3	85/5
13	7	92/5
14	6	98/5
15	5	103/5
16	8	111/6
17	6	117/6
18	15	132/6
19	3	135/7
20	4	139/7

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