**Basin Reserve, Wellington**
Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

WellingtonversusCentral Districts

13 Jan 2024 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 6 wickets

Wellington20.0 overs147/8 Central Districts16.5 overs148/4 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Wellington started on 58%; Wellington batted first.

Wellington’s chance of winning (%) · Central Districts is the rest

Wellington's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Central Districts: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: DAJ Bracewell to NG Smith, NG Smith out. Central Districts up from 37% to 52%.
1.5: BJ Small to NF Kelly, NF Kelly out. Central Districts up from 44% to 55%.
10.2: JFA Field to MA Abbas, MA Abbas out. Central Districts up from 60% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.