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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe Twenty20 Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
24 Jul 2025 · T20
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 81%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 80% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 20%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Clive Madande · Richard Ngarava 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Clive Madande · b Richard Ngarava | 75 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 166.67 |
| Tim Robinsoncaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Richard Ngarava | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 111.11 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Sikandar Raza · Tinotenda Maposa7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Tinotenda Maposa | 63 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 161.54 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Wellington Masakadza · Tinotenda Maposa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Tinotenda Maposa | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Bracewellnot out2 fours · 1 sixes |
| not out |
| 26* |
| 16 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 162.50 |
| Bevon Jacobscaught · Tony Munyonga · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Richard Ngarava | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Clive Madande · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Clive Madande · b Richard Ngarava | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 4 | 8.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 12.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Dion Myers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-19 (Tim Robinson, 2.2) · 2-127 (Rachin Ravindra, 13.4) · 3-127 (Mark Chapman, 14.0) · 4-153 (Tim Seifert, 16.4) · 5-153 (Bevon Jacobs, 17.0) · 6-169 (Mitchell Santner, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 16 | 57/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 64/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 72/1 |
| 9 | 15 | 87/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 92/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 100/1 |
| 12 | 12 | 112/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 120/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 127/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 132/3 |
| 16 | 9 | 141/3 |
| 17 | 12 | 153/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 158/5 |
| 19 | 11 | 169/6 |
| 20 | 21 | 190/6 |
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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