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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
24 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Zambia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Gambia started on 35%; Gambia batted first.
Gambia's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (Zambia: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Jarjucaught · Ismail Kara · Ayaz Dadabhai 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ismail Kara · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
| Muhammed Mangacaught · Zahirbhai Patel · Joshep Zulu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zahirbhai Patel · b Joshep Zulu | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Frank Campbellbowled · Ayaz Dadabhai 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Aniru Contehlbw · Zahirbhai Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zahirbhai Patel | 16 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 51.61 |
| Pa Assan Fayerun out · Ayaz Dadabhai, C Chilekwa · C Chilekwa 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ayaz Dadabhai, C Chilekwa | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| caught · Zahirbhai Patel · b Javid Patel |
| 6 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 46.15 |
| David Dembacaught · C Chilekwa · Ismail Kara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Chilekwa · b Ismail Kara | 13 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 59.09 |
|---|
| Mustapha Suwarehcaught · C Chilekwa · Ayaz Dadabhai 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Chilekwa · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 15 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Musa Jobartehbowled · Ayaz Dadabhai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayaz Dadabhai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Malang Touraynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismail Kara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshep Zulu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| C Chilekwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Lungu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahirbhai Patel0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Javid Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Andre Jarju, 1.2) · 2-23 (Frank Campbell, 3.3) · 3-23 (Muhammed Manga, 4.2) · 4-37 (Pa Assan Faye, 7.1) · 5-46 (Aniru Conteh, 11.2) · 6-53 (Abubacarr Kuyateh, 12.2) · 7-87 (Mustapha Suwareh, 18.3) · 8-87 (Musa Jobarteh, 18.4) · 9-93 (David Demba, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 26/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 31/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 37/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 40/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 43/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 46/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 53/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 55/6 |
| 14 | 6 | 61/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 65/6 |
| 16 | 9 | 74/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 81/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 84/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 88/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 93/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.