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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
25 Oct 2024 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 45%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Scotland: 44% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sushant Modanicaught · Mark Watt · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Brandon McMullen | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Andries Gouslbw · Brad Currie 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Monank Patelbowled · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brandon McMullen | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Matty Cross · Brad Wheal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Brad Wheal | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 21.74 |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Brad Currie |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Andrew Umeed · Brad Wheal 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Umeed · b Brad Wheal | 22 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 81.48 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyklbw · Mark Watt 10 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mark Watt | 58 | 87 | 10 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhbowled · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigebowled · Brandon McMullen 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brandon McMullen | 21 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen3 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 2.22 | 1 | 1 |
 Brad Wheal4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1.88 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Sole0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 5 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.4 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 3.71 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Sushant Modani, 3.3) · 2-21 (Andries Gous, 4.5) · 3-21 (Monank Patel, 5.3) · 4-21 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 6.4) · 5-21 (Shayan Jahangir, 6.5) · 6-39 (Milind Kumar, 11.4) · 7-58 (Harmeet Singh, 17.3) · 8-59 (Jasdeep Singh, 18.4) · 9-130 (Nosthush Kenjige, 35.4) · 10-144 (Shadley van Schalkwyk, 38.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 21/5 |
| 8 | 2 | 23/5 |
| 9 | 10 | 33/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 36/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 39/5 |
| 12 | 0 | 39/6 |
| 13 | 5 | 44/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/6 |
| 15 | 6 | 51/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 57/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 58/6 |
| 18 | 0 | 58/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 60/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 62/8 |
| 21 | 5 | 67/8 |
| 22 | 11 | 78/8 |
| 23 | 3 | 81/8 |
| 24 | 2 | 83/8 |
| 25 | 1 | 84/8 |
| 26 | 7 | 91/8 |
| 27 | 3 | 94/8 |
| 28 | 16 | 110/8 |
| 29 | 4 | 114/8 |
| 30 | 0 | 114/8 |
| 31 | 6 | 120/8 |
| 32 | 6 | 126/8 |
| 33 | 3 | 129/8 |
| 34 | 0 | 129/8 |
| 35 | 1 | 130/8 |
| 36 | 0 | 130/9 |
| 37 | 9 | 139/9 |
| 38 | 1 | 140/9 |
| 39 | 4 | 144/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
